A busy stretch of severe thunderstorms is underway due to record heat and now the threats are ramping up, putting major metro areas from Chicago to Nashville under threat as the country hits the peak of tornado season.
Severe thunderstorms rocked parts of the central US on Wednesday, and Thursday’s storm threat spells trouble for tens of millions of people in the Midwest, where some areas have already been hit by damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes.
It’s part of what will likely be a week-long stretch of fierce weather—with an increasing chance of a severe storm outbreak on Friday—after a recent lull.
It’s already been an incredibly busy year for tornadoes in the United States, but May is typically the busiest month of them all. This year is the third most active to date, only trailing the record-breaking 2011 season and last year’s hyperactive season.
Here’s what the next few days could hold:
A storm churning over the north-central US Thursday morning fueled feisty storms later in the afternoon and evening in the Midwest.
More than 20 million people from Minnesota to Michigan and Indiana – including Minneapolis, Milwaukee and Chicago – are under a level 3-of-5 risk of severe thunderstorms, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
At least nine tornadoes were reported in Minnesota and Wisconsin as thunderstorms rumbled to life Thursday afternoon.
Significant damage was reported in Dodge County, Wisconsin as a cluster of storms around the county prompted shelter-in-place alerts and displaced residents, according to Sheriff Dale Schmidt.
One person was transported to the hospital with injuries in Juneau, said the sheriff, adding there “may have been another minor injury or two that occurred.”
Many streets and highways in the county are closed due to downed power lines and trees, Schmidt said. In Juneau, multiple homes were damaged and at least one house suffered a roof collapse. Everyone inside was able to get out safely, he added.
A line of storms moving across Lake Michigan started to move into Michigan and far northern Indiana Thursday evening.
Strong winds were the main threat overnight with the potential of embedded tornadoes. The storms were expected to weaken after midnight.
As of early Friday, more than 280,000 customers were without power in Michigan, according to tracking site PowerOutage.us. Utility company Consumers Energy said assessments on power restoration are still waiting to be made, according to CNN affiliate WNEM.
Record-breaking, July-like heat has baked these locales this week, allowing the atmosphere to stock up plenty of fuel for explosive storms.
Damaging winds are likely in any storm from the afternoon on, but parts of Michigan and Indiana could feel gusts up to 75 mph late in the evening. A vast area from Minnesota and Wisconsin to parts of Missouri and Kentucky could receive hail larger than hen eggs.
Storms with damaging wind gusts, hail and possibly a tornado are most likely in central Virginia, but a few stronger storms might hit parts of North Carolina and Maryland, too.
A few strong thunderstorms may linger in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys early Friday, but a much more widespread severe threat could reignite in the afternoon.
A level 4-of-5 risk of severe thunderstorms is in place farther south from Missouri to Kentucky, according to the SPC.
“All severe weather hazards are on the table, including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and torrential rainfall,” the National Weather Service in Louisville, Kentucky, warned. “A few strong tornadoes and instances of very large hail are possible.”
Forecasters were initially concerned morning storms would lessen the chance of severe weather later in the day, but that scenario is seeming less likely.
The SPC is now warning of a “regional outbreak” with “a few intense supercells.”
Storms could fire up in parts of Missouri and Arkansas in the afternoon and expand rapidly in scope as they push east. Eventually, a line of thunderstorms is expected to come together and slam parts of Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky and southern Indiana with wind gusts stronger than 80 mph.
Dangerous storms could continue after dark, particularly in parts of Kentucky and areas east. It’s a threat to be especially mindful of as nighttime tornadoes are nearly twice as likely to be deadly as those occurring during the day, a 2022 study found.
Severe thunderstorms are possible in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday as the same storm driving Thursday and Friday’s threats pushes east. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the greatest threats for now, but a tornado can’t be ruled out.
New storms could bring damaging wind gusts, hail and tornadoes to parts of the southern Plains starting Saturday afternoon.
The Plains will remain the main focus of severe weather on Sunday and Monday as well, with damaging storms possible in much of Oklahoma and Kansas.
More details about the exact risks these storms will pose and the populations under threat next week will become clear in the coming days.
