CNN
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President Donald Trump’s approach to the federal government has been to cut, cut, cut, which means when there is a disaster in which the government plays a role, he will have to expect questions about those cuts.
When there’s a plane crash, as there was days into his second term, the shortage of air traffic controllers will be scrutinized.
When the administration quietly backtracks on some layoffs and struggles to re-fill key positions, it will lead to concerns that cuts went too far.
When there’s a tragic flood that catches an area off-guard, the effect of his cuts on the National Weather Service and FEMA will become a line of inquiry.
Flash floods killed at least 95 people over the July Fourth holiday, and many others are still missing. Rescue and recovery are still ongoing, so no one can say for sure that personnel cuts at the National Weather Service or open positions at forecasting offices in Texas amplified or even affected the flood’s tragic outcome.
There are many facts yet to be discovered, and a full investigation will certainly be conducted.
In pictures: Deadly flooding in Texas
But Trump’s approach to weather and disasters is well-known
Recent reports about how staffing and budget cuts are affecting forecasting at the agency may ultimately be seen as an early warning.
“The National Weather Service is in worse shape than previously known, according to interviews with current and former meteorologists, due to a combination of layoffs, early retirements and preexisting vacancies,” CNN’s Andrew Freedman wrote back in May. The report also noted that a third of National Weather Service forecasting stations lacked a top meteorologist in charge.
CNN reported in April the Trump’s administration plans to close weather research laboratories and climate research programs meant to improve weather detection as the climate warms. That budget proposal was more recently submitted to Congress.
Project 2025, the conservative government blueprint that presaged many of the Trump administration’s decisions, called for much less federal spending on weather forecasting and more reliance on private companies.
We also can’t say for sure that Trump’s hands-off approach to emergency management will affect recovery in Texas. In fact, Trump quickly declared the flood zone to be a major disaster area.
But he has also said he wants to shutter the Federal Emergency Management Agency and for the federal government to play a much smaller role.
“We want to wean off of FEMA, and we want to bring it back to the state level,” he said at the White House in June.
Asked if Trump is reconsidering that position in light of the horrible Texas floods, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said this:
“The president wants to ensure American citizens always have what they need during times of need. Whether that assistance comes from states or the federal government, that’s a policy discussion that will continue. And the president has always said he wants states to do as much as they can, if not more.”
CNN’s Gabe Cohen recently reported that disaster decisions were being made directly at the White House, bypassing FEMA and the well-trod process by which states seek help. It also raises concerns that White House political allies could get more attention than political enemies, although a Department of Homeland Security spokesman denied that idea to Cohen.
Wanting the federal government to do less has been a theme of the Trump administration so far. States will either have to pony up more of their own money for Medicaid and food aid or watch citizens fall off assistance as a result of the sweeping new policy bill he signed Friday.
We also can’t directly blame this or any one storm on climate change. But Republicans are currently bragging about killing the previous administration’s climate agenda, which Trump and his allies call the “Green New Scam.”
In terms of specifics about the Texas floods, local residents and officials, still in shock during TV interviews, said they were caught off-guard by the floods.
That may not ultimately be a forecasting issue.
“The weather service did their job,” Rick Spinrad, who was National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration administrator during the Biden administration, told CNN’s Boris Sanchez on Monday, referring to the issuance of watches, warnings and “WEAs,” the Wireless Emergency Alert system.
But Spinrad admitted there could have been a breakdown in connectivity between the forecasters and emergency services in the morning.
“On first blush, the communications breakdown happened at that last mile,” he said. The San Antonio National Weather Service office was missing a key coordinator who Spinrad said “is critical in that last mile of communications.”
That position has been vacant since April, when a longtime employee took the Trump administration’s buyout offer.
Asked about that unfilled position, Leavitt said, “The offices were fully staffed with forecasters.”
Kerrville, Texas, Mayor Joe Herring Jr., told CNN’s Pamela Brown on Monday that he lost friends in the floods and that local officials had not gotten word about the severity of the forecast.
“We didn’t even have a warning. We did not know,” he said, fighting back tears.
CNN’s Brown, who reported from Texas, has a personal connection to the story: As a child, she attended Camp Mystic, the girls’ camp where the flood claimed the lives of 27, including campers and staffers.
“I do think it’s important to have patience and humility that those (answers on what happened) may not come as quickly as perhaps we want,” she said.
“It was a once-in-a-lifetime flood,” she added. Residents knew the river could flood, but people she spoke to are referring to this as “an act of God.”
