CNN
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Last fall, in the waning weeks of the presidential campaign, Donald Trump visited Sprankle’s Neighborhood Market, a family-owned grocery store in rural Kittanning, Pennsylvania.
The stop was meant to drive home one of Trump’s core campaign promises: to rein in the cost of groceries and everyday needs starting on Day 1 of his presidency.
January inflation data released on Friday showed progress in tamping down overall price growth. Now, new tariffs on the United States’ top three trading partners threaten to kick inflation back up again.
This week, the Trump administration levied 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada and at least a 20% tariff on imports from China. Experts warn prices for many grocery store items will rise as a result.
Last week, before the additional tariffs were implemented, residents of Kittanning, located about 43 miles northeast of Pittsburgh and part of Armstrong County, which Trump won with 76% of the vote, told CNN that they have high hopes for the president’s ability to tackle price hikes.
Ryan Sprankle, the owner of Sprankle’s Neighborhood Market in Kittanning, who stood next to Trump at that campaign stop, said he didn’t think it was feasible for Trump to fully curb inflation on his first day in office.
“No matter who’s trying to get your vote, I think there’s always a certain amount of overpromising,” Sprankle, who is a registered Republican, told CNN last week. “To change the whole economy in one month? I think that’s probably unrealistic to be able to do that. But at the same time, the fact that it’s stabilized gives me hope.”
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.5% in January from the year before, slowing from December’s 2.6% annual rate and inching back toward the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% annual inflation, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department.
Joe Biden was president for 20 of the 31 days the report covered. But the cost of food — especially eggs — and energy stayed elevated in January, pushing up overall PCE and another measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
According to CPI data, the price of eggs rose more than 15% between December and January, the biggest surge since June 2015, driven by a deadly bird flu that has constricted supply.
“Eggs, of course, eggs are the big topic right now. I don’t know a Democrat, Republican, king, emperor — I don’t know if anybody could’ve predicted there would be a bird flu,” said Sprankle.
Mexico and Canada supply a significant share of food items, including fruits, vegetables, grain and meat — and tariffs might cause grocery bills to rise in just a matter of days.
On Tuesday, Target CEO Brian Cornell said that Trump’s tariffs on Mexico, in particular, may force the company to raise prices on fruits and vegetables as soon as this week.
“Those are categories where we’ll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days,” Cornell said in an interview with CNBC.
Trump won his second term, in part, because he pledged to help lower costs after inflation jumped during the Biden administration, peaking at a 41-year high in 2022.
By the final year of Biden’s presidency, inflation was falling. Still, many voters continued to feel the sting of the price surge.
Brian McGrath, a registered Democrat who voted for Trump, said he felt like the economy in Western Pennsylvania had been stagnant.
Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate in December, the most recent month to provide data, was 3.6%, below the national average of 4.1%. But consumer prices in the Northeast region (which includes Kittanning) rose to 3.7% in January, according to CPI data, tracking above 3% overall inflation.
“We hope that maybe by having Republicans, there might be potential growth, some change,” McGrath said.
Although he said he doesn’t agree with all of the administration’s actions so far, McGrath said he’s hopeful the president will bring positive economic change.
Other residents in Kittanning are also willing to be patient with Trump.
“I think it’s going to take some time for that to happen,” Jenny Kline, an independent voter, said last week of Trump’s promise to bring down inflation. “It didn’t get this way in six months!”
“I’m willing to give him the time because I think he’ll be able to do it,” she added.
However, some economists have warned that, in addition to tariffs, another of Trump’s economic priorities — mass deportations — could reignite inflation.
Even if inflation falls back down to healthy levels, some Americans may be disappointed to learn that elevated price levels are largely here to stay. Widespread falling prices, known as deflation, can be a dangerous sign for the economy.
Jolene McIlwain, a Democrat and lifelong Kittanning resident, said she has felt the frustration with high prices among many people in her small town.
“In the coffee shop, you hear people talking about, ‘Are we going to be able to afford to get a car loan?’ ‘Are we going to be able to afford to buy eggs?’” she said. “I think people are going to hold out hope, but also be highly critical, no matter which party.”
Sprankle, the grocery store owner, also said he believed there was “a lot riding on the next four years” for both parties.
“The next four years will really go a long way to determine: Was everybody’s decision they made the right decision?” he said.
