CNN
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President Donald Trump teased a significant trade announcement to be announced Thursday, yet another sign of some possible relief from historically high tariffs that have threatened serious damage to the US and global economies.
“Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!” Trump posted Wednesday night on Truth Social.
Trump didn’t specify which country, but his administration has suggested it is in active negotiations with India, the United Kingdom, South Korea and Japan.
For weeks, Trump officials have said they are talking to more than a dozen countries and are nearing a deal, but none have been announced so far. Trump has frequently said he is in no rush to sign a deal, claiming that countries have been “ripping off” America for years and the high tariffs the United States has imposed will help balance trade.
Despite the administration’s rhetoric that it is in advanced trade negotiations with more than a dozen countries, actual trade deals take significant time, often years, to hash out. They typically involve incredibly complex agreements, delving into the minutiae of various goods and non-tariff barriers. They often involve significant political considerations, as various parties seek to protect voters with special interests.
Instead, the “deal” Trump teased is more likely a memorandum of understanding. That may result in lower tariffs on one particular country’s goods in the near term, but they’ll do little that amounts to a substantial economic win for quite some time.
And this is just a single agreement. The “reciprocal” tariffs that went into effect April 7 and were paused for 90 days on April 9 affect dozens of countries. A hundred or so more are subject to the 10% universal tariff. The administration can’t possibly get those all done by July 8.
“The 90-day tariff pause, which is now roughly 25% over, provides little time for the typical back-and-forth trade discussions that require months if not years to craft a trade deal,” said Jacob Jensen, trade policy analyst for the American Action Forum, a center-right policy institute.
“There is a significant difference if these deals are official, written trade agreements rather than verbal commitments to buy more US products, as one has long-term economic implications and the other can be ignored down the line,” he added.
Trump said last month he would not extend the tariffs a second time — and, in fact, may act sooner to reinstate some tariffs with countries with whom his administration cannot reach an agreement, perhaps in a matter of a couple weeks.
“It will be difficult for the US trade representative to negotiate potentially 100 separate trade agreements within 90 days, meaning President Trump must soon determine whether tariffs will be reinstated or delayed further,” Jensen said.
And even if deals are ultimately completed with all countries, there’s no guarantee Trump would keep them. For example, Trump, in his first term, was instrumental in negotiating the USMCA free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, only to abandon it in his second term, charging an on-again, off-again 25% tariff on some Mexican and Canadian goods. And by placing significant tariffs on virtually all goods coming into the United States, Trump also blew up a number of existing trade deals with allies.
This is a developing story and will be updated.
