CNN
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The US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment led with the threat from drug cartels for apparently the first time in the report’s nearly 20-year history, according to Senate Intelligence Chairman Tom Cotton and a CNN review of previous assessments, highlighting a top agenda item for President Donald Trump.
The assessment also omitted any reference to the national security implications of climate change, a sharp reversal from previous intelligence assessments, including those under Trump’s first administration.
Drug cartels in Mexico and other parts of the Western Hemisphere “endanger the health and safety of millions of Americans and contribute to regional instability,” the intelligence assessment says. Fentanyl and other potent synthetic opioids caused more than 52,000 deaths in the US in the 12 months ending in October 2024, according to the assessment. That’s actually a 33% decrease from the year prior and may be attributed to the increased availability of the overdose-countering medicine naloxone, the document says.
The decline in drug deaths doesn’t appear to have made the cartels less potent.
“Mexico-based [transnational criminal organizations] are ramping up lethal attacks in Mexico against rivals and Mexican security forces using IEDs, including landmines, mortars, and grenades,” the intelligence assessment says.
In the first weeks of Trump’s return to the White House, the US military significantly increased its surveillance of Mexican drug cartels, with sophisticated spy planes flying at least 18 missions over the southwestern US and in international airspace around the Baja peninsula, CNN previously reported.
While the cartels tend to smuggle the drug over the border, most of the fentanyl that enters the US comes from ingredients made in China, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe testified that the Chinese government has been “limited” and “intermittent” in its effort to curb the domestic production of fentanyl precursors.
One reason for that, Ratcliffe said, is “there are more than 600 PRC-related companies that produce those precursor chemicals in an industry that generates $1.5 trillion,” he told lawmakers, using an acronym for the Chinese government.
China’s role in the fentanyl supply chain has emerged as one of the most sensitive issues in US-China relations. Chinese officials have accused the US of “smearing and scapegoating” Beijing by blaming it for the US opioid epidemic. The Trump administration has cited the flow of fentanyl precursors as justification for a tariff increase on goods from China.
In the first Trump administration, multiple annual threat assessments from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence highlighted threats and impacts from climate change. But ODNI’s report released Tuesday didn’t contain the phrase “climate change.”
The Pentagon “does not do climate change crap,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said this month in responding to a CNN report, citing defense officials and security experts, that slashing climate programs could put US troops and military operations at risk.
Under questioning from Sen. Angus King, a Maine independent who caucuses with the Democrats, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard avoided using the phrase “climate change.”
“Obviously, we’re aware of occurrences within the environment and how they may impact operations, but we’re focused on the direct threats to Americans’ safety, well-being and security,” Gabbard said.
Asked by King if she told ODNI personnel to avoid climate change, Gabbard said she “didn’t recall giving that instruction.”
Dr. Ravi Chaudhary, former assistant secretary of the Air Force for energy, installations and environment, previously told CNN that climate programs are not just important to giving the US military an edge on adversaries like China, but they also help keep service members and their families safe.
