Washington
CNN
—
President Donald Trump has falsely claimed this week that grocery prices are “going down” and “are down.” In fact, grocery prices have continued to rise under Trump – and they were up even before he imposed near-global 10% tariffs earlier this month.
Trump made the latest version of the false claim while denouncing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday. Powell had warned in Wednesday public remarks that Trump’s tariff policies are likely to lead to slower economic growth and higher inflation.
Trump wrote on social media Thursday that Powell should have lowered interest rates “long ago” and should do so now, as the European Central Bank did again on Thursday.
Trump’s argument: “Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS.” He had similarly claimed on social media on Tuesday that the US is taking in hefty tariff revenue “with the cost of almost all products going down, including gasoline, groceries, and just about everything else.”
But grocery prices are not down or going down.
Average grocery prices were about 2.41% higher in March 2025 than they were in March 2024, Consumer Price Index data shows. This was the highest year-over-year grocery inflation rate since August 2023.
And average March 2025 grocery prices were up about 0.49% from February 2025. That was the highest month-to-month grocery inflation rate since October 2022.
Month-to-month grocery inflation was quite low in February 2025, with average prices essentially the same as they were in January 2025. The jump in March 2025, though, meant that average grocery prices last month were about 0.49% higher than they were in January 2025, the month Trump returned to office. (It’s possible that prices at some particular grocery stores have fallen under Trump.)
And this increase in average grocery prices happened before Trump imposed 10% tariffs in early April on imports from most countries (notably excluding goods from major agricultural trading partners Canada and Mexico that are compliant with Trump’s USMCA deal).
Those 10% tariffs are certain to increase grocery prices, though it’s not clear by how much. Prices would likely rise further if Trump re-imposed the higher tariffs he put on pause for 90 days hours after they briefly went into effect in early April.
Assessing Trump’s other claims in the social media posts
We’ll briefly assess Trump’s other claims about inflation in the two social media posts this week.
It is true that oil prices have gone down since Trump returned to office. But Trump didn’t mention that many analysts say this decline is partly related to concerns that the tariff wars he initiated will slow the global economy and therefore reduce demand for oil.
US retail gas prices have fallen slightly so far this month, per data provided to CNN by AAA, declining from a national average of about $3.20 per gallon on April 1 to about $3.17 per gallon on Thursday. But prices are up slightly since Trump returned to the White House on January 20, when the national average was about $3.12 per gallon.
Retail egg prices have spiked under Trump amid an avian flu outbreak, hitting a new high of about $6.23 per dozen on average in March – about 25.7% higher than the average in January. Wholesale egg prices, however, have declined sharply since late February, so it’s possible egg prices paid by consumers are falling this month, too.
Trump has at least one data point to cite as evidence for his claim that overall consumer prices are coming down: there was a tiny decline in overall prices in March 2025 compared to February 2025, about 0.05%, on a seasonally adjusted basis. But that, too, was before Trump imposed his 10% tariffs in early April. And even as of March, prices were about 0.17% higher on a seasonally adjusted basis than they were in January 2025 and about 2.41% higher than they were in March 2024.
