Ottawa
CNN
—
For Canadian voters, blink and you could practically miss this campaign. Not only is it lightning fast at just five weeks long, but the ho-hum pace of the race means that the tone and tenor haven’t changed much since the election was called in late March.
That doesn’t mean Canadians have tuned out, quite the opposite: early ratings indicate they watched with interest as national leaders – including Prime Minister Mark Carney and his key rival Pierre Poilievre – debated in both French and English the last couple of evenings in Montreal.
Two men not on stage were nonetheless top of mind, as they have been throughout the campaign: US President Donald Trump and former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Trump has proven a convenient foil for Carney, a political rookie who has been Canada’s leader for only a matter of weeks.
Carney mentioned Trump and his threats early and often in the debates.
“We can give ourselves far more than Donald Trump can ever take away,” said Carney within minutes, setting the tone for the two-hour face-off between four Canadian party leaders, rounded out by Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, and leader of the New Democratic Party Jagmeet Singh.
That statement was followed up later by his answer to an open-ended question: how would you lead in a crisis? Carney didn’t have to mention President Trump or his threats, but he did.
“In a crisis, you got to plan for the worst, the worst is that the US actually does want to take us over,” said Carney, referring to Trump’s threats to annex Canada and make it America’s 51st state.
And then, as if Canadians needed more reminders, his closing statement was blunt, foreboding and all about the American threat.
“They want our land, they want our resources, they want our water, they want our country. And we’re all going to stand up against Donald Trump. I’m ready,” he declared.
His main challenger, Conservative Party leader Poilievre, was quick to invoke Carney’s predecessor as prime minister and Liberal Party leader, Justin Trudeau, running as much against the Trudeau record as Carney’s short tenure.
“How can we possibly believe that you are any different than the previous 10 years of Liberal government,” Poilievre pointedly demanded of Carney.
“Are you prepared to elect the same Liberal MPs, the same Liberal ministers, the same Liberal staffers, all over again for a fourth term?” he asked voters.
“Mr. Carney,” said Poilievre as he turned to face the former central banker, “Justin Trudeau’s staffers are actually here with you at this debate, in Montreal, writing the talking points that you’re regurgitating into the microphone.”
“I do my own talking points, thank you very much,” Carney shot back before returning to his familiar theme: “The biggest risk we have to affordability, the biggest risk we have to this economy is Donald Trump, so first and foremost we’ve got to get that right.”
As contentious as the exchange was, the debate itself is unlikely to change voter intentions. Carney took the lead early in this campaign and long-time pollster Andrew Enns describes the race as “parked” for the moment, going into the April 28 vote.
“I think Mr. Carney took some body blows,” said Enns of Leger, a research firm, adding: “Is it enough for people to question his credentials that he seems to be winning on right now? I don’t think so, but Canadians will have a long weekend to kind of ponder it and I do think there were a few exchanges that will give them something to talk about.”
While the debates were anti-climactic, Carney’s extraordinary ride to the pinnacle of Canadian politics has been anything but.
The former central banker in both Canada and the United Kingdom had never run in a political contest in his life, before he won the race to replace Trudeau earlier this year.
From that moment on, as President Trump threatened to break Canada economically and make it his “51st state,” Carney’s rise in the polls was without modern precedent.
“I’ve never seen polls move like this in my 25 years of polling, I mean it’s incredible,” said Enns, pointing out that in mid-January Trudeau’s Liberal Party trailed Poilievre’s Conservatives by 24 percentage points. Within weeks of Carney becoming Liberal Party leader and then prime minister, the polls flipped, and he would lead Poilievre by 7 points in Leger polling.
While some polls show a narrowing of that lead, Poilievre has little time left to change voters’ minds about who is best placed to defend Canada from Trump’s threats.
However, Enns said there is some softness to Carney’s support, especially with those voters who want change in this next election.
Until Carney entered the national race, Poilievre’s pugnacious populism had won over a solid constituency of voters right across Canada.
His “Axe the tax” mantra was a chorus heard around the country, as opposition to Canada’s carbon tax grew.
The minute Carney took office, he axed the tax himself, pulling a foundational pillar from Poilievre’s platform.
A Carney jab during Thursday night’s debate was as succinct as it was cutting: “It may be difficult for Mr. Poilievre, you spent years running against Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax and, they’re both gone.”
Still, Enns points out that polls consistently show Canadians do want change after nearly a decade of Liberal government, and Poilievre has an opening to recapture the platform that, before this year, made him a likely Canadian prime minister.
“He (Poilievre) really did put forward clear things he would do to address what he talks about as the lost decade under the Liberal government,” said Enns, adding that, “if nothing else he may have planted the seed in some of those voters that have currently parked themselves with the Liberals and ask that question, ‘Are we really going to elect a Liberal government again?’”
That question will likely bring many voters’ deliberations back to the two men not running in this election: Trump and his threats contending with Trudeau and his perceived failures.
“Mark Carney is asking for a fourth Liberal term repeating exactly the same Liberal promises that priced you out of the house,” Poilievre said, before adding a familiar refrain: “We need a change.”
