CNN
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New Hampshire Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s decision to not seek reelection marks the latest bit of tough luck for Senate Democrats, who face an increasingly challenging midterm election map as they fight to climb out of the minority.
After losing four seats and control of the Senate in 2024, Democrats entered the 2026 cycle confronted by a 53-47 Republican majority and a daunting map with seemingly few offensive opportunities.
The retirements of three incumbents in Minnesota, Michigan and now New Hampshire have only further complicated matters. President Donald Trump has won Michigan in two of the last three election cycles, and all three open seats will require money and resources to defend against Republicans hoping to expand their majority.
It’s a challenging reality for a party that should be looking at a favorable cycle. Midterm elections have historically been a bright spot for the party out of power in the White House, which tends to gain seats in Congress as voters weigh in on the president’s leadership. That makes 2026 a key cycle for Democrats, whose best shot at reclaiming the Senate in future cycles rests on netting seats next year.
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson David Bergstein spoke to the importance of the party seizing opportunities next year. “This Senate map is ripe with offensive opportunities Democrats can take advantage of,” Bergstein said. “Open seats in states the GOP hasn’t won in decades don’t change the fundamentals of the cycle: Republicans have more seats to defend, and they’re doing it in a hostile political environment.”
Republicans have portrayed the trio of retirements as a sign that next year could defy past trends.
“Incumbents don’t retire when they think they’re about to have an easy re-election,” said GOP strategist Corry Bliss. “Incumbents retire when they think, ‘Holy sh*t, this environment is going to suck.’”
Democrats’ chances of weathering the cycle may hinge in part on Republicans’ continued recruitment challenges. The GOP has lost winnable seats in recent years with controversial, Trump-backed candidates such as Herschel Walker in Georgia, Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Kari Lake in Arizona.
Some potential Republican recruits may be unwilling to run in a cycle when they may have to defend federal worker cuts led by Elon Musk’s DOGE initiative, possible cuts to programs such as Medicaid and the dismantling of the Department of Education, said Martha McKenna, a Democratic ad-maker and strategist.
“Why would a reasonable, moderate Republican ever want to run for Senate in 2026?” McKenna said. “It’s just going to be impossible for them to explain it.”
The DSCC’s Bergstein echoed that sentiment, saying, “Our approach at this stage is to ensure we have strong candidates in these states, identify where Republicans have weak incumbents, and build the infrastructure so we can take advantage of as many realistic opportunities as possible.”
The first blow to Democrats came in late January, when Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, the outgoing chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, announced that he was retiring. Weeks later, Minnesota Democratic Sen. Tina Smith made a retirement announcement of her own.
Smith described her retirement, along with those of her colleagues, as a personal decision about how to spend the next decade of their lives. The three of them have “great confidence” that there’s a strong bench of candidates in their states, she said during an interview on CNN Wednesday.
“I don’t think that any of the three of us feel like we are the only ones who can do this job in this moment, but it matters to know that I believe a strong Democrat will hold the seat when I am finished in this job,” she said.
Incumbency is a powerful advantage and losing it in those states is a blow to the party. With Shaheen’s departure, Democrats are suddenly faced with the prospect of contending in three open seats, including two in Midwest states that have been trending toward Republicans in recent election cycles.
In New Hampshire, Democrats are trading Shaheen – a former governor and three-term Senator who won her last re-election bid by 16 points – at a time when Republicans are making inroads in the Granite State. Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte won the 2024 gubernatorial race by 9 points and Trump improved his margin of defeat from more than 7 points in 2020 to under 3 points in 2024.
“This is an earthquake, and it absolutely puts this in play,” Jim Merrill, a New Hampshire-based Republican strategist, said of Shaheen’s retirement. “There’s no question about it, the seat is now absolutely competitive.”
In a potential boon to Republicans, former GOP New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu told the Washington Examiner earlier this week that he hasn’t ruled out a run for the seat.
Josh Holmes, a Republican strategist and past staffer to former Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell, said that while Democratic retirements have made some seats more competitive for his party, the critical work Republicans must do during the off-year is to get on the same page when it comes to recruitment.
“It’s an intriguing environment for Republican candidates to want to get involved,” Holmes said. “I think the alignment is the key. You’ve got to make sure that you’ve got a president in a White House that sees the world exactly the same way as a majority leader or a Senatorial Committee.”
Republicans will need to recruit strong candidates in open seats and protect incumbents from primary challenges. Some Republicans, including Sens. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Thom Tillis of North Carolina, have already drawn primary challenges. Elon Musk and other Trump allies have threatened to back primary challengers to Republicans who stray from the president’s agenda.
Trump himself has publicly acknowledged that Republicans who fail to vote with him may be primaried. And having spent more than a quarter of a billion dollars supporting Trump’s return to the White House in 2024, Musk has more than shown his willingness to spend on campaigns.
The retirements of Peters, Smith and Shaheen also create the potential for crowded, contentious primaries for Democrats that could divide the party and hurt its chances further.
There are signs that process is already underway. Peters’ retirement announcement produced a rush of statements from prominent contenders expressing interest in the race, including former Biden administration Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; Attorney General Dana Nessel; Reps. Rashida Tlaib and Hillary Scholten; and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.
In Minnesota, a similar story played out. Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan was quick to move, declaring her intention to run hours after Smith’s announcement, while progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar’s team also released a statement that day, saying the congresswoman “will be talking with Minnesotans” about the seat. The list of potential contenders also includes Attorney General Keith Ellison and former US Rep. Dean Phillips.
Meanwhile in New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas, who represents the state’s First Congressional District, said he is “strongly considering” a run in the wake of Shaheen’s announcement, while former Democratic US Rep. Ann Kuster also said she would “take a serious look” at the Senate race.
Caitlin Legacki, a Democratic strategist who has worked on Senate campaigns for Shaheen and other candidates, said if there is a time for Democrats to retire, it’s now.
“When you look at the bigger picture, it’s better to have open seat races in these places in the first midterm of Trump’s administration, than six years from now, when it’s going to be a presidential year and we don’t know what the dynamics are going to be,” she said.
Crowded, rambunctious primaries could be good testing grounds for the eventual Democratic nominee in each state – but they could just as easily divide party factions, already at odds over the best path forward in the wake of losses in 2024.
Drawn-out primaries could also strain campaign budgets that were already set to be tested in what’s expected to be one of the most expensive midterm election cycles in history.
In 2022, the most recent midterm election cycle, the most expensive Senate race was in Georgia, drawing more than $385 million in ad spending. The top five Senate races that year cost more than $1.4 billion combined. And in 2024, the top five Senate races cost the parties more than $1.6 billion total.
Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is projecting eye-watering totals for some of the top races next year. At a donor event in early February, Scott told attendees that the parties could spend more than $1 billion defending just two competitive Republican-held seats, according to a report from Politico.
While retirements create new or better opportunities for Republicans, their best chance to flip a seat likely remains Georgia, where first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff is seeking re-election.
Ossoff’s early 2021 win helped Democrats secure the Senate ahead of Biden’s inauguration. But recent elections have been disappointments. Democrats lost Georgia’s 2022 gubernatorial race by more than 7 points, and Trump won the state by about 2 points last year.
Meanwhile, Democrats’ best opportunities to cut into Republicans’ majority are also tall tasks.
One is in Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for a sixth term. Democrats have had success in statewide races not featuring Collins – they won the governor’s office in 2018 and 2022, while Independent Sen. Angus King, who caucuses with Democrats, won a third term in 2024. But Collins has defied those trends, and won a decisive 9-point victory in her 2020 reelection campaign.
In North Carolina, Democrats are aiming to knock off Tillis – who won in 2014 and 2020 by less than two points – in a battleground state that’s repeatedly frustrated them at the presidential level. Many Democrats are hoping former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper decides to run.
“There’s a lot to like about what’s going on in North Carolina,” Legacki said, referencing Democrats’ statewide wins in 2024. “It’s just a question of whether we can pick up that Senate seat. And look, if anyone can do it, it’s Roy Cooper.”
