CNN
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American consumers are on the cusp of tough choices because of President Donald Trump’s trade war.
Ships now pulling into US harbors from China are the first to be subject to the massive tariffs that America is imposing on most Chinese imports. Many of them are half full.
That means, in a matter of weeks, consumers will face higher prices and shortages of certain items.
Imports from China have fallen dramatically since Trump imposed steep tariffs – particularly since last month, when the tit-for-tat trade war sent the tariff on most Chinese goods up to 145%.
“This week, we’re down about 35% compared to the same time last year, and these cargo ships coming in are the first ones to be attached to the tariffs that were levied against China and other locations last month,” Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told CNN Tuesday. “That’s why the cargo volume is so light.”
The drop-off in imports from China on the boats now coming into port is more than 50%, Seroka said. Many importers have canceled previous orders because US businesses aren’t interested in paying the steep tariff, which can more than double the price of Chinese goods.
The Port of LA had expected 80 ships to arrive in May, but 20% of those have been canceled, Seroka said. Customers have already canceled 13 sailings for June.
“And you still don’t know how long this is going to last,” Seroka warned. “Retailers and importers alike are telling me that the products now cost about two and a half times more than they did just last month.”
Shortages and price hikes
Rather than import goods to the United States, some retailers are choosing to pay to store their products in Chinese warehouses because it’s cheaper than paying the tariff, according to Ryan Petersen, CEO of Flexport, a logistics and freight forwarding broker. With importers and retailers unwilling to pay the steep cost, deliveries could continue to fall – as much as 60%, said Petersen. Consumers will start to notice very soon.
”A 60% decline in containers means 60% less stuff arriving,” Petersen told CNN’s Pamela Brown Tuesday. “It’s only a matter of time before they sell through existing inventory, and then you’ll see shortages. And that’s when you see price hikes.”
Imports into the United States during the second half of 2025 are expected to fall at least 20% year over year, according to the National Retail Federation. The decline from China will be even starker: JP Morgan expects a 75% to 80% drop in imports from there.
In the meantime, Americans are continuing to buy goods that were previously warehoused in the United States. But those stockpiles are starting to run out.
“If this goes on for a few more weeks, (retailers will) sell through that inventory and by the summertime, you’ll have shortages and empty shelves,” Petersen told CNN last week.
Seroka doesn’t expect completely empty shelves – but he predicts customers will have less selection.
“So if you’re looking for a certain type of pants, you may find all kinds of pants, but not the type you want. And the type you want….are going to be priced up,” said Seroka.
Stockpiling boosted the US trade deficit more than expected in March, widening it to a record $140.5 billion as businesses hoarded materials, supplies and consumer goods ahead of the bulk of Trump’s tariffs.
“Businesses spent Q1 front-loading orders for consumer and capital goods (among other things) ahead of Liberation Day on April 2,” noted Daniel Vielhaber, economist at Nationwide, in a note to clients Tuesday. “However, with the new tariffs now in place, we look for a shift up in inflation, adding a headwind to already slowing consumer activity and economic growth.”
Despite the swell of new tariffs in April, economists anticipate the surge in imports to continue for at least a few more weeks as the last few shipments that were on the water before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced arrive into port.
“Goods will enter the country duty free if they were loaded on a ship at the port of departure or in route to the US ahead of the tariff imposition date and are received before May 27,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note to investors Tuesday. “This gives businesses a bit more time to get product in ahead of tariffs and suggests we may see a last-ditch effort in the April data. But beyond that we expect trade to slow materially.”
